Working Papers

• Fiscal Rules and Ambiguous Spending Needs (2026) with Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez, and Francisco Roch. [Draft coming soon!]​
• Default Depressions (2026) [PDF]​
• The Sovereign Default Risk of Giant Oil Discoveries (2025) [PDF] [code] Revise and resubmit, Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics.

Publications

• Default and Interest Rate Shocks: Renegotiation Matters (2026) with Victor Almeida, Timothy Kehoe, and Juan Pablo Nicolini. Forthcoming at the American Economic Review.
  • ​[PDF] [NBER, WP] [Minneapolis Fed, WP]
• Expansionary Fiscal Rules Under Sovereign Risk. With Agustin Samano. Journal of International Economics 159 (2026): 104198.​
  • [PDF] [Journal link] [code] [World Bank, WP]
• Sovereign Risk and Dutch Disease. Journal of Monetary Economics 149 (2025): 103663.
  • ​​[PDF] [Journal link] [code]
• Underinvestment and Capital Misallocation Under Sovereign Risk. Journal of International Economics 151 (2024): 103973​.
  • [PDF] [Journal link] [code]

Book Chapter

• Lessons from the Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America (November 2021) [link to Staff Report], joint with Timothy Kehoe and Juan Pablo Nicolini. Final chapter in A Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America, 1960-2017 [link to book] edited by Timothy J. Kehoe and Juan Pablo Nicolini.​

Publication in Spanish

• Un modelo de riesgo soberano con recursos naturales, Cuadernos económicos del ICE 103 (2022): 69–87.
  • [PDF] [Journal link]

Older projects

• ​Pricing Following the Nominal Exchange Rate (2018) [PDF]